Dear Judgers of Chance,

Everyday we face countless probabilities. It’s difficult to get ourselves to think probabilistically because we like to believe that life is a series of simple cause and effect events. It’s usually not, however. Things might happen, or they might not, or something completely unexpected may happen instead. The only thing we can do in the face of all this uncertainty is to think reasonably about what is most likely.

Math equips us with all sorts of tools to think probabilistically. We have dice and cards and spinners and coin flips and rock, paper, scissors, and countless other ways of modeling probability. Today we’ll use these tools to help us build our skills at estimating probability. Some things are more likely to happen than others, and it’s our duty to figure this out and be able to explain why. We might turn out to be right or wrong, but what’s most important is that our estimate is reasonable and based on evidence.

Sincerely,

Mr. Heimbuck